It has been a year since Mark Cuban, Internet billionaire and owner of the Dallas Mavericks, posed the question, “is Facebook the new Internet?”  In his article he argues that Facebook is everything that the Internet was five years ago.  I think he probably meant 10 years ago, but let’s not split hairs.

This question has haunted me for twelve months and caused me to observe the world from Mark’s perspective.  There is much controversy over whether Mark was just lucky or good.  Despite the luck he undoubtedly had, he recognized societal trends and how to capitalize on them.  His statement should not be taken lightly.

Over the past year I’ve made three observations that help me understand Mark’s statement and through the process, understand the future in a Facebook world:

ONE – The Corporate Embrace

In 1997 very few of my friends and relatives understood what I was working on and why I had gone back to business school.  I was fascinated by this Internet thing and knew that the traditional consulting work I was doing would not get me the understanding I wanted.  Right around 1998, the big consumer brands started to embrace their web pages as more than just a fad.  Their TV and print materials started to include “find out more at WWW.______”.  Suddenly my friends figured out how to get to the Internet from their AOL account and found out what I was doing.  In the past year I noticed that most of these brands have abandoned their WWW for “find us at Facebook.com/”  Just as in 1998 when the question changed from “should we have a web page?” to “what should our web page be?”  A Facebook strategy is not a question of “if” but “what?”

TWO – Inclusion

In 1998 I had a web page where I shared photos and kept my family and friends up-to-date on what I was doing.  A handful of my friends did the same thing.  To this day there are many people who believe that I am an incredible surfer because I found a picture of a pro that looked very much like me pulling a six foot aerial.  Today I have a couple hundred “friends” who share their many photos and daily life with me on Facebook although my previous surfing ruse makes me healthily skeptical of what they claim to be up to.   The discrepancy in the number of my friends that shared in 1998 versus today reminds me of William Gibson, author of Neuromancer, who told The Economist, “The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed.”  Sharing your life online was a desirable activity, but before Facebook, the barriers to entry were just too high for most people.  Facebook made it easy and hundreds of millions of people have signed up.

THREE – Just Because

Starting in 1998 when everyone decided that they needed a web page, they became obsessed with “hits” and “eyeballs.”  It didn’t matter why someone came to your site or what they were doing.  All that mattered was that they were there.  As a result, brand managers did all kinds of crazy things to get traffic on their website even though they didn’t know why.  I see the same thing on Facebook today.  Companies are obsessed with “fans” and “likes.”  Why?  If they were honest they would tell you that they are not sure but that it will probably be important or worse yet they will be left out if they don’t have them.

What this tells me about the future

I believe Facebook will continue to bring online activities to people who would not otherwise participate.  They have already done this (or at least made it possible) with gaming.  Hard-core gamers have been collaborating on-line for years.  It wasn’t until Zynga put Mafia Wars and Farmville on Facebook that a whole new set of consumers started gaming online.  If what you are doing is more easily done through Facebook, get on Facebook, yesterday.

I believe that eventually big brands will figure out how to better serve their customers through Facebook, just as they did on the web.  The question to ask is not what can Facebook do for me?, but what can I do for my customers through Facebook?  Your customers are already there, figure out how to serve them better with this cool new tool.   “Likes” will be the result of this activity rather than a goal in itself.

The Winners:

• Companies that provide their services through Facebook in a way that is easier than any other alternative. (thanks Zynga)
• Corporate brands that focus on using Facebook to better serve their customers. (“what do I think the next Vitaminwater flavor should be?  Well, let me tell you…”)

The Losers:

• Companies trying to provide services that are better delivered through Facebook.
• Firms who are pitching “I’ll get you more likes” will find they have much in common with Scient and Viant.  (look it up)

You can read Mark’s  entire post here.